Webs’ Random Ideas

That’s right. Don’t believe fine, here is the paper published by those that conducted the study: The Lancet Journal, File is in pdf format. Pretty crazy huh? Well read the study report and decide for yourself if you want to believe it. Here is an excerpt:

Methods: Between May and July, 2006, we did a national cross-sectional cluster sample survey of mortality in Iraq. 50 clusters were randomly selected from 16 Governorates, with every cluster consisting of 40 households. Information on deaths from these households was gathered.

Findings: Three misattributed clusters were excluded from the final analysis; data from 1849 households that contained 12 801 individuals in 47 clusters was gathered. 1474 births and 629 deaths were reported during the observation period. Pre-invasion mortality rates were 5·5 per 1000 people per year (95% CI 4·3–7·1), compared with 13·3 per 1000 people per year (10·9–16·1) in the 40 months post-invasion. We estimate that as of July, 2006, there have been 654 965 (392 979–942 636) excess Iraqi deaths as a consequence of the war, which corresponds to 2·5% of the population in the study area. Of post-invasion deaths, 601 027 (426 369–793 663) were due to violence, the most common cause being gunfire.

Seems pretty reasonable to me how they conducted the sample. In my stats class we learned that for most social science studies you aim to be 95% correct at least. The study seems to fall in with that. Also note my title, you notice it may differ from the title of news outlets. The study actually states that of post-invasion deaths, 601,027 were from violence. So the others could have came as a result of our invasion, but they could have also came from other things such as heart failure or old age.

However, as the study points out, and what I find incredibly interesting is that even non-violent deaths have increased after our invasion. Of course correlation does not imply causality, but the fact is interesting non the less. Here is a screenshot for you:

Anyways, now to the really interesting bit. Time for Bush’s Take on the Study… Well as you probably have guessed after seeing the video, Bush didn’t read the original study document at all. And if he did he could have spun the outcome to his advantage. Note how the graph on page 4 shows how the mortality rate has dropped since the summer. Anyways, to bad Pres Bush doesn’t care cause it would be nice to have a President that gives a shit about the world and what happens.